Journal of Modern Power Systems and Clean Energy

ISSN 2196-5625 CN 32-1884/TK

Wind power forecasting errors modelling approach considering temporal and spatial dependence
Author:
Affiliation:

1.The State Key Lab of Power Systems, Department of Electrical Engineering, Tsinghua University, Beijing, China 2 Power Dispatch Control Centre of Guangdong Power Grid Corporation, Guangzhou, China

Fund Project:

This work was supported by China’s National High Technology Research and Development Program (No. 2012AA050207), China’s National Nature Science Foundation (No. 51190101) and Science and Technology Projects of the State Grid Corporation of China (No. SGHN0000DKJS130022).

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    Abstract:

    The uncertainty of wind power forecasting significantly influences power systems with high percentage of wind power generation. Despite the wind power forecasting error causation, the temporal and spatial dependence of prediction errors has done great influence in specific applications, such as multistage scheduling and aggregated wind power integration. In this paper, PairCopula theory has been introduced to construct a multivariate model which can fully considers the margin distribution and stochastic dependence characteristics of wind power forecasting errors. The characteristics of temporal and spatial dependence have been modelled, and their influences on wind power integrations have been analyzed. Model comparisons indicate that the proposed model can reveal the essential relationships of wind power forecasting uncertainty, and describe the various dependences more accurately.

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  • Received:
  • Revised:
  • Adopted:
  • Online: May 09,2017
  • Published: