Journal of Modern Power Systems and Clean Energy

ISSN 2196-5625 CN 32-1884/TK

Modelling of wind power forecasting errors based on kernel recursive least-squares method
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Affiliation:

1 State Key Lab of Power Systems, Department of Electrical Engineering, Tsinghua University, Haidian District, Beijing 100084, China

Fund Project:

This work was partly supported by National Natural Science Foundation of China (No. 51190101) and science and technology project of State Grid, Research on the combined planning method for renewable power base based on multi-dimensional characteristics of wind and solar energy. The authors would like to thank Tsingsoft Innovation Technology Co. Ltd for providing the wind power data. We also thank Professor Pierre Pinson for some innovative ideas.

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    Abstract:

    Forecasting error amending is a universal solution to improve short-term wind power forecasting accuracy no matter what speci?c forecasting algorithms are applied. The error correction model should be presented considering not only the nonlinear and non-stationary characteristics of forecasting errors but also the ?eld application adaptability problems. The kernel recursive least-squares (KRLS) model is introduced to meet the requirements of online error correction. An iterative error modi?cation approach is designed in this paper to yield the potential bene?ts of statistical models, including a set of error forecasting models. The teleconnection in forecasting errors from aggregated wind farms serves as the physical background to choose the hybrid regression variables. A case study based on ?eld data is found to validate the properties of the proposed approach. The results show that our approach could effectively extend the modifying horizon of statistical models and has a better performance than the traditional linear method for amending short-term forecasts.

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  • Received:
  • Revised:
  • Adopted:
  • Online: September 15,2017
  • Published: