Journal of Modern Power Systems and Clean Energy

ISSN 2196-5625 CN 32-1884/TK

Inter-hour direct normal irradiance forecast with multiple data types and time-series
Author:
Affiliation:

1 Key Laboratory of Measurement and Control of CSE, Ministry of Education, School of Automation, Southeast University, Nanjing 210096, China 2 State Key Laboratory of Operation and Control of Renewable Energy and Storage Systems (China Electric Power Research Institute), Nanjing 210003, China

Fund Project:

The authors acknowledge the National Renewable Energy Laboratory for providing the data used in this study. This research was supported by the National Key Research and Development Program of China (No. 2018YFB1500803), National Natural Science Foundation of China (No. 61773118, No. 61703100), and Fundamental Research Funds for Central Universities.

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    Abstract:

    Boosted by a strong solar power market, the electricity grid is exposed to risk under an increasing share of fluctuant solar power. To increase the stability of the electricity grid, an accurate solar power forecast is needed to evaluate such fluctuations. In terms of forecast, solar irradiance is the key factor of solar power generation, which is affected by atmospheric conditions, including surface meteorological variables and column integrated variables. These variables involve multiple numerical time-series and images. However, few studies have focused on the processing method of multiple data types in an inter-hour direct normal irradiance (DNI) forecast. In this study, a framework for predicting the DNI for a 10-min time horizon was developed, which included the nondimensionalization of multiple data types and time-series, development of a forecast model, and transformation of the outputs. Several atmospheric variables were considered in the forecast framework, including the historical DNI, wind speed and direction, relative humidity time-series, and ground-based cloud images. Experiments were conducted to evaluate the performance of the forecast framework. The experimental results demonstrate that the proposed method performs well with a normalized mean bias error of 0.41% and a normalized root mean square error (nRMSE) of 20.53%, and outperforms the persistent model with an improvement of 34% in the nRMSE.

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  • Received:
  • Revised:
  • Adopted:
  • Online: September 24,2019
  • Published: