Journal of Modern Power Systems and Clean Energy

ISSN 2196-5625 CN 32-1884/TK

Forecasting Scenario Generation for Multiple Wind Farms Considering Time-series Characteristics and Spatial-temporal Correlation
Author:
Affiliation:

1.State Key Laboratory of Advanced Electromagnetic Engineering and Technology, Hubei Electric Power Security ;2.High Efficiency Key Laboratory, School of Electrical and Electronic Engineering, Huazhong University of Science and Technology, Wuhan, China;3.Department of Electrical Engineering, Tsinghua University, Beijing, China

Fund Project:

This work was supported by the National Key Research and Development Program of China (No. 2017YFB0902600).

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    Abstract:

    Scenario forecasting methods have been widely studied in recent years to cope with the wind power uncertainty problem. The main difficulty of this problem is to accurately and comprehensively reflect the time-series characteristics and spatial-temporal correlation of wind power generation. In this paper, the marginal distribution model and the dependence structure are combined to describe these complex characteristics. On this basis, a scenario generation method for multiple wind farms is proposed. For the marginal distribution model, the autoregressive integrated moving average-generalized autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity-t (ARIMA-GARCH-t) model is proposed to capture the time-series characteristics of wind power generation. For the dependence structure, a time-varying regular vine mixed Copula (TRVMC) model is established to capture the spatial-temporal correlation of multiple wind farms. Based on the data from 8 wind farms in Northwest China, sufficient scenarios are generated. The effectiveness of the scenarios is evaluated in 3 aspects. The results show that the generated scenarios have similar fluctuation characteristics, autocorrelation, and crosscorrelation with the actual wind power sequences.

    表 1 Table 1
    表 3 Table 3
    图1 Calculation results of ARIMA and GARCH-t models. (a) ARIMA model. (b) GARCH-t model.Fig.1
    图2 Joint-frequency distribution and probability distribution of power output of wind farms. (a) Joint-frequency distribution. (b) Probability distribution.Fig.2
    图3 Overall process of modeling and scenario generation.Fig.3
    图4 Comparison of reliability index of different marginal distribution models at different confidence levels. (a) Comparison based on data of the third day. (b) Comparison based on data of all 5 days.Fig.4
    图5 Comparison of sharpness index of different marginal distribution models. (a) Comparison under 75% confidence level. (b) Comparison under 95% confidence level.Fig.5
    图6 Generated scenarios of joint-output of 8 wind farms. (a) Model 1. (b) Model 2. (c) Model 3. (d) Model 4.Fig.6
    图7 SE index comparison of each wind farm.Fig.7
    图8 Comparison of probability distribution of fluctuations. (a) Q-Q diagram of fluctuations. (b) Cumulative probability curve of fluctuations.Fig.8
    图9 ACF comparison of scenarios generated by different models. (a) Model 1. (b) Model 2. (c) Model 3. (d) Model 4.Fig.9
    图10 CCF comparison of output scenarios of 2 wind farms. (a) Model 1. (b) Model 2. (c) Model 3. (d) Model 4.Fig.10
    表 2 Table 2
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History
  • Received:December 30,2020
  • Revised:
  • Adopted:
  • Online: August 04,2021
  • Published: