Journal of Modern Power Systems and Clean Energy

ISSN 2196-5625 CN 32-1884/TK

Synthetic Time Series Generation Model for Analysis of Power System Operation and Expansion with High Renewable Energy Penetration
Author:
Affiliation:

1.Energy Center, Department of Electrical Engineering, Faculty of Mathematical and Physical Sciences, University of Chile, Santiago, Chile;2.Department of Electrical Engineering, University of Antofagasta, Antofagasta, Chile;3.School of Electrical Engineering, University of Costa Rica, San Pedro, Costa Rica

Fund Project:

This work was supported by FONDAP/ANID Solar Energy Research Centre SERC-Chile (No. 15110019), Fondecyt-ANID (No. 1211968), Fondecyt (No. 1181532), and the National Master Thesis (No. CONICYT/21161139).

  • Article
  • |
  • Figures
  • |
  • Metrics
  • |
  • Reference
  • |
  • Related
  • |
  • Cited by
  • |
  • Materials
    Abstract:

    The increasing integration of renewable energy sources into current power systems has posed the challenge of adequately representing the statistical properties associated with their variable power generation. In this paper, a novel procedure is proposed to select a proper synthetic time series generation model for renewable energy sources to analyze power system problems. The procedure takes advantage of the objective of the specific analysis to be performed and the statistical characteristics of the available time series. The aim is to determine the suitable model to be used for generating synthetic time series of renewable energy sources. A set of indicators is proposed to verify that the statistical properties of synthetic time series fit the statistical properties of the original data. The proposal can be integrated into systematic tools available for data analysis without compromising the representation of the statistical properties of the original time series. The procedure is tested using real data from the New Zealand power system in a mid-term analysis on integrating wind power plants into the power system. The results show that the proposed procedure reduces the error obtained in analyzing power systems compared with reference models.

    图1 Classification of models for generation of SS.Fig.1
    图2 Flow chart of model selection for generation of SS.Fig.2
    图3 Types of analysis to be performed in power system and corresponding time horizon.Fig.3
    图4 General scheme for selection of time series.Fig.4
    图5 General scheme for preprocessing of raw data and statistical analysis.Fig.5
    图6 Time series spatial-temporal correlation. (a) ACF of time series at STH1 location. (b) CCF of time series at STH1 and CKS1 locations.Fig.6
    图7 Histogram of wind speed time series at STH1 location.Fig.7
    图8 Box plot for STH1 location with hourly resolution.Fig.8
    图9 RMSRE of each available model considered.Fig.9
    图10 RMSRE of CCM and monthly statistics for each available model considered.Fig.10
    图11 RMSRE values for each available model computed by solving (3) considering wind speed time series at STH1 location.Fig.11
    图12 Histograms of OTS and SS generated by VAR model 9.Fig.12
    图13 ACF and PACF of OTS and SS reconstructed through SS using VAR model 9 at STH1 location. (a) ACF. (b) PACF.Fig.13
    图14 Comparison of CCF of OTS and CCF reconstructed through SS using VAR model 9.Fig.14
    图15 Box plots of OTS and SS using VAR model 9. (a) OTS. (b) SS.Fig.15
    表 1 Table 1
    Reference
    Related
    Cited by
Get Citation
Share
Article Metrics
  • Abstract:
  • PDF:
  • HTML:
  • Cited by:
History
  • Received:November 10,2020
  • Revised:
  • Adopted:
  • Online: August 04,2021
  • Published: