Journal of Modern Power Systems and Clean Energy

ISSN 2196-5625 CN 32-1884/TK

Cross Trajectory Gaussian Process Regression Model for Battery Health Prediction
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NSF I/UCR Center for Intelligent Maintenance Systems, Department of Mechanical Engineering, University of Cincinnati, Cincinnati, USA

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    Abstract:

    Accurate battery capacity prediction is important to ensure reliable battery operation and reduce the cost. However, the complex nature of battery degradation and the presence of capacity regeneration phenomenon render the prediction task very challenging. To address this problem, this paper proposes a novel and efficient algorithm to predict the battery capacity trajectory in a multi-cell setting. The proposed method is a new variant of Gaussian process regression (GPR) model, and it utilizes similar trajectories in the historical data to enhance the prediction of desired capacity trajectory. More importantly, the proposed method adds no extra computation cost to the standard GPR. To demonstrate the effectiveness of the proposed method, validation tests on two different battery datasets are implemented in the case studies. The prediction results and the computation cost are carefully benchmarked with cutting-edge GPR approaches for battery capacity prediction.

    图1 Three GPR models for battery SoH prediction. (a) SISO-GPR. (b) MIMO-GPR. (c) MISO-GPR.Fig.1
    图2 National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) battery dataset.Fig.2
    图3 Prediction of trajectory differences of T1-T2 and T1-T3.Fig.3
    图8 Overview of proposed methodology.Fig.8
    图9 Overview of trajectory selection strategy.Fig.9
    图10 Capacity trajectories with sufficient samples in Case 1.Fig.10
    图11 Similarity between T2 and reference trajectories. (a) Ranking of trajectory similarity. (b) Forward search for optimal reference combination in Case 1.Fig.11
    图12 Benchmark of AIT using different GP models in Case 1.Fig.12
    图13 Ranking of trajectory similarity and forward search. (a) Ranking of trajectory similarity. (b) Forward search for optimal reference combination in Case 2.Fig.13
    图14 Top-ranking capacity trajectories that are similar to RW10 in Case 2.Fig.14
    图15 Prediction results of CTGP and MTGP based on different combinations of reference trajectories in Case 2. (a) CTGP with RW9 as reference trajectory. (b) MTGP with RW9 as reference trajectory. (c) CTGP with RW11 as reference trajectory. (d) MTGP with RW11 as reference trajectory. (e) CTGP with RW9, RW11, RW8, RW2, RW16, RW15, RW7 as reference trajectories. (f) MTGP with RW9, RW11, RW8, RW2, RW16, RW15, RW7 as reference trajectories.Fig.15
    图16 Benchmark of AIT in Case 2.Fig.16
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History
  • Received:March 10,2019
  • Revised:
  • Adopted:
  • Online: September 28,2021
  • Published: