Journal of Modern Power Systems and Clean Energy

ISSN 2196-5625 CN 32-1884/TK

Recurring Multi-layer Moving Window Approach to Forecast Day-ahead and Week-ahead Load Demand Considering Weather Conditions
Author:
Affiliation:

1. School of Electrical, Computer and Telecommunications Engineering, University of Wollongong, Wollongong, Australia
2. Information and Computing Technology Division, College of Science and Engineering, Hamad Bin Khalifa University, Doha, Qatar

Fund Project:

This work was supported by Hong Duc, Thanh Hoa–UOW research scholarship program.

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    Abstract:

    The incorporation of weather variables is crucial in developing an effective demand forecasting model because electricity demand is strongly influenced by weather conditions. The dependence of demand on weather conditions may change with time during a day. Therefore, the time stamped weather information is essential. In this paper, a multi-layer moving window approach is proposed to incorporate the significant weather variables, which are selected using Pearson and Spearman correlation techniques. The multi-layer moving window approach allows the layers to adjust their size to accommodate the weather variables based on their significance, which creates more flexibility and adaptability thereby improving the overall performance of the proposed approach. Furthermore, a recursive model is developed to forecast the demand in multi-step ahead. An electricity demand data for the state of New South Wales, Australia are acquired from the Australian Energy Market Operator and the associated results are reported in the paper. The results show that the proposed approach with dynamic incorporation of weather variables is promising for day-ahead and week-ahead load demand forecasting.

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History
  • Received:March 31,2021
  • Revised:May 31,2021
  • Adopted:
  • Online: November 21,2022
  • Published: