Journal of Modern Power Systems and Clean Energy

ISSN 2196-5625 CN 32-1884/TK

Multivariate Two-stage Adaptive-stacking Prediction of Regional Integrated Energy System
Author:
Affiliation:

1. School of Electrical and Information Engineering, Tianjin University, Tianjin 300072, China
2. Concordia Institute for Information Systems Engineering, Concordia University, Montreal, QC H3G 1M8, Canada
3. School of Electrical and Engineering, Hebei University of Technology, Tianjin 300401, China
4. Marketing Service Center, State Grid Tianjin Electric Power Company, Tianjin 300302, China

Fund Project:

This work was supported in part by Science and Technology Project of the Headquarters of State Grid Corporation of China (No. 5100-202155018A-0-0-00), the National Natural Science Foundation of China (No. 51807134), the State Key Laboratory of Power System and Generation Equipment (No. SKLD21KM10), and the Natural Science and Engineering Research Council of Canada (NSERC) (No. RGPIN-2018-06724).

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    Abstract:

    To reduce environmental pollution and improve the efficiency of cascaded energy utilization, regional integrated energy system (RIES) has received extensive attention. An accurate multi-energy load prediction is significant for RIES as it enables stakeholders to make effective decisions for carbon peaking and carbon neutrality goals. To this end, this paper proposes a multivariate two-stage adaptive-stacking prediction (M2ASP) framework. First, a preprocessing module based on ensemble learning is proposed. The input data are preprocessed to provide a reliable database for M2ASP, and highly correlated input variables of multi-energy load prediction are determined. Then, the load prediction results of four predictors are adaptively combined in the first stage of M2ASP to enhance generalization ability. Predictor hyper-parameters and intermediate data sets of M2ASP are trained with a metaheuristic method named collaborative atomic chaotic search (CACS) to achieve the adaptive staking of M2ASP. Finally, a prediction correction of the peak load consumption period is conducted in the second stage of M2ASP. The case studies indicate that the proposed framework has higher prediction accuracy, generalization ability, and stability than other benchmark prediction models.

    表 1 Table 1
    表 3 Table 3
    表 2 Table 2
    图1 Framework of multi-energy load prediction in RIES.Fig.1
    图2 Implementation process of RF-RFE.Fig.2
    图3 Schematic diagram of quantum-based atomic model.Fig.3
    图4 Schematic diagram of MASP framework.Fig.4
    图5 Implementation process of M2ASP.Fig.5
    图6 Implementation of proposed framework.Fig.6
    图7 Schematic diagram of IMFs for multi-energy loads decomposed by AVMD. (a) IMFs of electrical load. (b) IMFs of heating load. (c) IMFs of cooling load.Fig.7
    图8 RF-RFE results of prediction results prediction framework.Fig.8
    图9 Sensitivity analysis results.Fig.9
    图10 MAPE of different q L and q F for CACS.Fig.10
    图11 Iterative curves for different optimizers.Fig.11
    图12 Comparison chart of prediction results in different seasons. (a) Electrical load in January. (b) Electrical load in April. (c) Electrical load in July. (d) Electrical load in October. (e) Heating load in January. (f) Heating load in April. (g) Heating load in July. (h) Heating load in October. (i) Cooling load in January. (j) Cooling load in April. (k) Cooling load in July. (l) Cooling load in October.Fig.12
    图13 MAPE of multi-energy load on Chinese New Year.Fig.13
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History
  • Received:May 30,2022
  • Revised:July 12,2022
  • Adopted:
  • Online: September 20,2023
  • Published: